‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most food outlets run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are switching to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of eateries are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have dwindled with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the officials insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say cylinders are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now effectively closed by the war.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and accumulation has been triggered by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports 90% of its oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can tweak operations to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.