Beyond the Pomp of Putin's New Delhi Trip: An India-Russia Relationship That Has Diminished.

The diplomatic language and optics from Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent official trip to India hinted at a strong bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the tarmac with a hug, and the statesmen took a car journey, mirroring a known political gesture. In his remarks, Modi called Putin as "a dear friend" and described the India-Russia connection as a "guiding star", built on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's 10th trip to India over his quarter-century tenure and his 20th encounter with Modi after the latter took the premiership in 2014.

A Divide Between Pageantry and Substance

However, a significant disconnect persists between the symbolism and the actual content of this partnership. While Putin vowed "continuous fuel supplies" to India, Indian companies are actually purchasing less Russian oil due to international pressure. The two countries concluded numerous memorandums of understanding covering mobility, health, agriculture, naval cooperation, and educational collaboration. But, anticipated revelations on major military deals did not come to pass. India has abstained from any substantial defence purchases with Russia since the 2022's invasion of Ukraine, a situation driven by delays in shipments of equipment and components as Moscow prioritizes its own defence needs.

A Partnership Losing Strategic Influence

These developments points to that the India-Russia relationship no longer holds the same strategic clout it previously did. In the era of superpower rivalry, India maintained preferential trade terms and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This privileged relationship peaked in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed before a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was backed by the US and China. While both nations have sought to maintain a semblance of this special bond through a "unique and elevated" alliance announced in 2010, the truth is that their interaction does not have the former significance as New Delhi has substantially deepened relations with the Western world.

Diversification and Underlying Contradictions

New Delhi is unlikely to sever its crucial relationship with Moscow. But, as external pressure mounts on India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are seeking to diversify the relationship into other sectors. During Putin's trip, they announced an joint economic program extending until 2030, aiming to make their relations "broader, balanced and sustainable". This includes improving market access for Indian products to rectify a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two spans multiple strategically important sectors – from space and atomic energy to defence and food security.

Sentimental Affinity and Perceived Reliability

At an ideological level, a high degree of closeness with Russia remains, especially among older cohorts of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's crucial role during the earlier era. This has translated into a degree of sympathy for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid recent tensions between India and the US, in which American leaders have made critical remarks about the Indian economy, many in India perceive Russia as a increasingly reliable ally.

This challenge, naturally, is the continuing war in Ukraine.

The extensive declaration released during Putin's visit contained no mention to Ukraine, even though it ironically referred to the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the conflict have been limited.

Navigating the Circle: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Balancing Act

This situation highlights the underlying complexities in India's international stance. The country is poised to conclude a trade deal with the EU, following a comparable pact with the UK this year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to boost cultural contacts between India and Russia.

How will India square this complex equation? New Delhi will be banking that current talks will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of hostilities and the removal of a key irritant in its relations with the West. However, should a settlement is reached, if it fails of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, scrutiny of the India-Russia alliance will undoubtedly persist in European and American governments.