How the Kentucky UPS Plane Crash Developed and Potential Might Have Led to It

At least nine people lost their lives and 11 others were hurt after a UPS cargo plane went down while taking off from an international airport in Kentucky's largest city on Tuesday evening.

Aircraft specialists suggest the aircraft went down due to a single engine malfunctioned and another appeared to be damaged during take-off.

It is unclear what caused the plane to crash, prompting a massive fireball to ignite after it couldn't become airborne from the airstrip. Video evidence revealed flames were consuming a single wing of the aircraft during its takeoff attempt, which may have spread across the aircraft and caused the explosion, or the jet could have caught fire after colliding with an object on the ground.

What's clear is that the 38,000 gallons of jet fuel on board the trijet aircraft required for the journey likely escalated the blaze, which quickly spread to several buildings past the airstrip and burned for hours.

How did it start?

UPS operates from the Louisville air hub as a logistics center for its global operations and its designated flight was at the start of a 6,920 kilometer journey to Hawaii's capital when the cargo plane attempted to take off.

Tracking information from flight monitoring services shows the plane started moving along the 17R runway at around 17:15 local time and attained a top speed of 344km/h.

But verified footage shows that when the plane reached this speed a fire had completely engulfed its port side and the plane couldn't climb before the enormous detonation.

Authorities issued a shelter-in-place order to local residents and dispatched numerous fire crews to the scene.

Governor Andy Beshear confirmed particulars visible in security camera recordings that depict the plane traveling just feet above the surface before a intense light consumed the aircraft. It is then observed crashing onto the ground as a massive fire explosion ignites surrounding it about a minute into its journey.

A verified clip taken by drivers on adjacent roads showed the fire rising into the air while subsequent recordings revealed smoke billowing from the scene.

Aerial images shown on local media depicted wreckage scattering across the airstrip and falling onto the roofs of at least two local businesses.

Potential causes of the accident

ATC transmissions examined are mostly unclear and filled with static so no meaningful conversation can be heard about the incident as it unfolded.

But analysts proposed that a dramatic failure of two of the engines may have been responsible for the tragedy.

The MD-11 transport plane uses three powerplants. Two are installed under the airfoils, and a third is built into the tail at the bottom of the tail fin.

Footage confirmed revealed a blaze engulfing the left wing of the plane, which then tilted to the left as it attempted to gain lift and take-off.

Multiple specialists independently suggested the portside engine may have separated from the plane after suffering from a technical or physical breakdown.

Additional photographs captured post-accident showed a burned powerplant sitting on the turf adjacent to the airstrip.

A retired airline pilot and aviation safety expert said that it was "almost unheard of" for an powerplant to separate during operation.

The expert recalled the 1979 aviation disaster disaster, in which 273 people were fatally injured after the aircraft's powerplant separated as it took off from O'Hare International Airport. Parts of the engine had been damaged when it was installed on the aircraft, but the specialist said it was too early to say whether a comparable issue led to the powerplant separation on the trijet.

The specialist explained the cargo plane would have been able to fly with only two powerplants but the damage caused by the fire on the left wing was likely so great it resulted in the plane's third engine to lose thrust.

"With such a catastrophic event we cannot know what other damage was done when the engine came adrift," the expert commented.

Another aviation expert observed the video evidence appeared to show the third engine had been compromised because it released smoke. The issue could have occurred while it was pelted with debris from the fire and the engine detaching.

"The tail-mounted powerplant that expelled a puff of smoke appears to wind down almost immediately afterwards," the expert stated. "This left just the starboard powerplant producing thrust, resulting in a significant thrust asymmetry and leaving the aircraft unable to gain height.

"Losing two engines while departing results in only a fraction of its thrust and minimal opportunity of maintaining flight, particularly under maximum take-off weight," the specialist added.

Reasons for extensive destruction

Post-accident videos showed a situation of total disorder with numerous blazes burning across a extensive area of the site and smoke billowing into the sky.

The plane, which was 34 years old and had been used as a passenger plane before conversion, had previously made one round trip from Louisville to Baltimore in Maryland on Tuesday.

Authorities haven't verified what cargo was on board the flight bound for Hawaii, though officials said the aircraft didn't contain anything that would pose an increased danger of environmental hazard.

"This involved extended freight transport from Louisville to Honolulu, so the trijet was transporting a significant fuel quantity," a specialist said. "The substantial fuel quantity not only diminished capability but also explains the large fireball seen after the crash."

Officials told reporters that the aircraft was transporting 144,000 litres of jet fuel for the extended trip when it crashed. The fire was likely amplified on the surface because the aircraft slammed into a fuel recycling business adjacent to the airfield.

The expert said investigators will now focus on the origin of the blaze, and "if wreckage hit the centre engine, and whether earlier maintenance on the portside powerplant were a factor." The expert continued: "Atmospheric conditions were favorable, so environmental factors are improbable."

The federal investigation agency has sent a team to the site and will now lead the investigation into the accident's origins, though this can take up to two years to finalize.

Michael Salazar
Michael Salazar

A tech journalist and digital strategist with over a decade of experience covering emerging technologies and their impact on business and society.