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On occasions when the wind gusts from the east from Belarus, Lithuania expects issues.

That is when large aerial objects are launched across the border, with crates of illicit tobacco swinging beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this unauthorized aerial activity has compelled Lithuania's Vilnius Airport into closure 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the airspace was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the government are convinced they are facing something much more aggressive than mere smugglers.

They contend the balloons have been "weaponised" in an act of hybrid warfare by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

Government Action

The Lithuanian administration has declared an state of emergency.

While balloons have been utilized by smugglers before, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Naturally it began as criminal enterprise, but we've seen more than once how Belarus instrumentalises organised crime to have an effect on bordering nations," a senior official stated.

The official argued the balloons are sent from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's border region.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."

Border Vigilance

Now, nightly, security forces deploy in the border zone.

The balloons are primarily seen under cover of darkness.

Units set up temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high up to make shooting them down a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has offered a €1m prize to any company that can devise how to safely stop them.

For now, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new legal penalties for acts of sabotage should also act as a deterrent.

Underlying Aims

The border itself is now defined by a high security barrier, with security wire and concrete blocks.

This enhanced fortification is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as adversarial.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania rejects that explanation, partly due to past precedent.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a manufactured emergency.

"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The suspicion is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into lifting international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and force us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Public Discontent

For now, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"We believe this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – undermining confidence – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of Nato: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."